Concern that public may take Covid less seriously without restrictions

According to a new study led by Cardiff University, people are likely to take the dangers of the new coronavirus less seriously after restrictions are finally lifted.

Psychologists believe lockdowns during the pandemic successfully convinced the public of the severity of the Covid-19 threat if their government was prepared to impose severe measures.

The findings could mean that scrapping restrictions leads to people ignoring any remaining public health guidance, which could include things such as wearing face masks in crowded places, or washing hands.

The study, based on two surveys during 2020 which were recently published in the Royal Society Open Science journal, found members of the public in the UK judged the threat of Covid “via the magnitude of the policy response” from their government.

Lead author, Dr. Colin Foad, Cardiff University, said: “Surprisingly, we found that people judge the severity of the Covid-19 threat based on the fact the government imposed a lockdown – in other words, they thought ‘It must be bad if the Government’s taking such drastic measures’.

“We also found that the more they judged the risk in this way, the more they supported a lockdown.

“This suggests that if and when ‘freedom day’ comes, and restrictions are lifted, people may downplay the threat of Covid.”

Dr. Foad said the research, which was also supported by the University of Bath and the University of Essex, found people’s support for restrictions was not based on the sense of threat to themselves or their families, but to “the country as a whole”.

“In order to try and keep public support for lockdowns high, various strategies have been tried by the Government, including reminding people that they and their loved ones are at risk from Covid-19,” he said.

“However, we find that most people’s personal sense of threat does not relate to their support for restrictions.”

Closer to home, and with the Delta variant of the coronavirus now causing concern both locally and nationally – with Derry City and Strabane Council the current hotspot for positive cases – Fermanagh and Omagh District Council has also seen a significant increase recently.

The Western Health and Social Care Trust's new Chief Executive, Neil Guckian, is warning that hospitals will have to prepare for an increase in hospitalisations in the coming weeks if the number of positive Covid-19 cases continue to rise.

He said: "It's fair to say at this stage that, yes, the cases are rising, but we aren’t seeing that manifested in the hospitals.

"We've still got extremely low numbers in Altnagelvin and South West Acute hospitals, so the Delta variant is a concern for all concerned, " said Mr. Guckian.

"I would imagine later in the summer if it continued – well, in the next number of weeks – if the current increases in rates go up, we will have to get back into the modelling of what it will look like in the hospitals, but that will be handled regionally."

There are currently four Covid-19 in-patients in the South West Acute Hospital, but while the numbers are low, Mr. Guckian admits the rise in cases is a concern for the Trust.

However, he stresses that if people continue to follow the Covid-19 guidelines as restrictions ease, it will help in the fight to keep the numbers low.

"It's probably harder now as we come out of the pandemic – it's harder for people to maintain the excellent discipline we had at the first surges.

"But really, as we loosen the restrictions, it's really important that people continue with the basics of social distancing, washing hands and wearing masks and getting vaccinated. They are the solutions."

Elsewhere in the UK, Scotland is only planning to ditch a handful of rules after August 9, while an announcement on rules in Wales is expected on July 14.