A NEW study published last month from the Central Border Region has found the impact of Brexit is worse, or much worse, than expected for most participants.

The report identifies growing concern on both sides of the Border for political stability in Northern Ireland, North/South cooperation, and cross-community relations in light of Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The results published on Friday, October 22 – led by Queen’s University Belfast – has found that more than half of respondents (53 per cent) say that the impact of Brexit has been worse or much worse than they had expected, with only 13 per cent saying it has been better than they feared.

Most participants in the study report negative economic experiences of the impact of Brexit and the NI Protocol, with around half of respondents pointing to problems with the supply, delivery, delays in delivery, and general availability of goods.

Societal impact

However, respondents express most concern for the societal impact of Brexit and the NI Protocol on cross-Border and cross-community relations.

Many give examples of a “hardening of views” on both sides, including among young people.

Half of respondents say that the experience of the past 12 months has made them less optimistic about the future in light of Brexit, whilst those who see positives from Brexit tend to do so in terms of economic advantage (for both parts of the island of Ireland), or strengthening sovereignty.

Leave-voting respondents, however, expressed a sense of disappointment, with many stating that what had been delivered, either politically or in purely economic terms, was not what they believed they had voted for.

Leave-voting participants predominantly see the NI Protocol in negative terms, although the majority of respondents in the survey overall see it in a positive light, such as offering “dual market accessibility”, and avoiding “a hard Brexit [and] hard Border”.

Co-author, Professor Katy Hayward, remarked on the significance of this research in light of current UK-EU discussions on the NI Protocol.

She said: “More than half [57 per cent] of participants remain concerned that there could yet be a hard Border in the future.

‘A real sense of flux’

“This shows overall that there is a real sense of flux and, with it, anxiety when it comes to the political, economic and social conditions in the Border region since the end of the [Brexit] transition period.

“Such concerns are felt on both sides of the Border, from people of different backgrounds, identities and viewpoints.”

Other finding show six out of ten people say Brexit is very important to them, with only 17 per cent saying it has been insignificant.

Some 48 per cent of people on both sides of the Border who took part in the study said Brexit has increased in importance since the end of the transition period, while uncertainty and a lack of clarity continue to be a serious concern, as is political stability and North/South co-operation.

Restricted services

The study also found that the Covid-19 pandemic has also contributed to current Brexit issues, as it restricted cross-Border services to services, including health, while the different vaccine roll-outs on either side of the Border created practical difficulties.

The detailed report is part of ‘The Border after Brexit’ project, held in conjunction with the Irish Central Border Area Network (ICBAN) – the cross-Border local authority partnership comprising eight local authorities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland.

It is co-authored by Prof. Hayward and Dr. Milena Komarova, from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s.

The research consisted of three parts – an online survey of 394 unique responses, focus groups and stakeholder interviews with participants across the region, from both sides of the Border.

The survey was taken from a self-selecting sample, so it is the comments and viewpoints submitted by respondents, not the quantitative results, that are the focus of the report.

Commenting on the report, ICBAN Chair, Councillor Eamon Mc Neill, said, “Together with Queen’s we have sought to give voice to the people from our Border region, and to provide a means to record and report on these opinions.

“We have endeavoured to ensure that the findings of each report are brought to the attention of those involved in the high-level discussions on the subject.

“We respect the differing political opinions within our board, our member councils and communities on the subject, and thus have been careful to ensure that this is a non-political and non-partisan initiative.”

The full report, ‘The Border after Brexit: Experiences of Local Communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland’, is available at https://tinyurl.com/4dpe8k2n.