On Thursday, May 5 the electorate of Fermanagh and South Tyrone will head to the polls to decide which five candidates to elect to the new Assembly.

While questions remain over whether there will be a functioning Assembly to go into, there is still plenty to play for the parties involved.

Early forecasting has put Sinn Féin out in front as the largest party – but will Sinn Féin take the top spot, but lose a seat locally?

The possibility is there, and it has been raised that they may only return two out of the three candidates, comprising Jemma Dolan, Áine Murphy and Colm Gildernew.

Of the three, only Miss Dolan has fought an Assembly election, with the others being co-opted.

Mr. Gildernew’s higher profile may leave Miss Murphy vulnerable. Her predecessor was only elected on the fourth count in 2017, with transfers from the SDLP pushing him ahead of Lord Morrow of the DUP.

Overall, they are not in one of the most transfer-friendly parties, and it means that the SDLP’s Adam Gannon may well benefit.

Before he was eliminated in 2017, SDLP candidate Richie McPhillips was only 62 votes behind Sean Lynch, of Sinn Féin.

It is a seat SDLP leader Colum Eastwood is targetting as a gain.

The vote share from 2017 showed Sinn Féin and the SDLP on the up, while both the DUP and UUP’s votes fell.

The Alliance party could have a say in that final seat as well.

Matthew Beaumont has created a significant profile for himself in the area since he first contested the Council elections in 2019, and his base has been growing.

He should claim more first preference votes for Alliance than in 2017, and he is another candidate that would be open to transfers from both sides of the community. If he is eliminated, his transfers will be important.

The UUP have run two candidates in Fermanagh and South Tyrone for the first time since 2011. Both Rosemary Barton and Tom Elliott are well known in the constituency.

Mrs. Barton won the seat in 2017, while Mr. Elliott is a former party leader, MLA and MP for the area, so both have the credentials and experience to attract voters.

But with both candidates based in Fermanagh, will it be enough to attract UUP votes in the rest of the constituency?

Mr. Elliott has a higher profile and may well be best placed to pull in more votes, and that could see him return to the Assembly for the first time since 2016.

In 2017, Arlene Foster topped the first preference votes in the constituency for the DUP. However, it may be difficult for the DUP to do the same this time around with Deborah Erskine and Paul Bell running.

Mrs. Erskine was seen by many as Mrs. Foster’s protege, and she has built a profile since being elected to Fermanagh and Omagh District Council, and then co-opted as an MLA to replace Mrs. Foster, but the DUP’s vote share may take a hit with two relatively new faces.

The TUV’s Alex Elliott could have his strongest performance yet at an election. With the call from Unionists to only transfer to Unionist candidates, his transfers should play a part in which fellow Unionists are elected.

The likes of Emma DeSouza (Independent), Donal O’Cofaigh (CCLA), Kellie Turtle (Green Party), Derek Backhouse (Independent), Denise Mullen (Aontú) and Emmett Kilpatrick (PBP) are unlikely to trouble the big parties, but where their transfers go will help determine that fifth seat.

It is likely Sinn Féin will return two MLAs, and DUP and UUP one each.

Sinn Féin will be hoping a strong polling day will make it three out of three, but the SDLP will be right in it, and there was little between them last time out.

However, the DUP, who were close in 2017, will also have an eye on the last seat.

The air of uncertainty that’s particularly strong in this election will make the transfer votes even more crucial than ever.