Two songs come into my mind as I sit down to consider writing this column while surveying politics in Northern Ireland, where there is little harmony.
Johnny Nash sang, “More questions than answers”; more of that anon.
First, in “The Gambler”, Kenny Rodgers sang, “Know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em. Know when to walk away...”
The DUP leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, hardly strikes you as a gambler, but it seems like one of those defining moments when he must put his cards on the table and either take what is on offer with the Windsor Framework, or walk away from Stormont. Perhaps for good.
Stick or twist?
When the DUP meets, the divided party contemplates one of the biggest decisions they have ever faced over the future of Northern Ireland.
The mood music seems to suggest that, at last, Sir Jeffrey is about to face down the critics and get himself off the hook that he became impaled on when he appeased the right wing.
After a threat of Loyalist street protests, if the “collaborators” returned to Stormont, Sir Jeffrey hit back and said that the main party of Unionism would not bow to the threat of intimidation.
We shall see.
We, the general public, have a lot of questions.
What happens if the DUP repeats the old refrain, saying no? What next?
What happens if they find a new tune and say yes? Can they make Stormont work for the betterment of all our lives?
Has it worked at all over the past 25 years?
Many of us, from both sides of the community, are not only fed up with the drift in politics here causing real hardship for many sections of society, but we are also fed up that our voice is being drowned out by the noise of the strident and hardline racket within Unionism.
It seems bonkers to many of us that the people so loud in proclaiming their loyalty to the Union are the very people making Northern Ireland unworkable. Go figure.
It’s clear to everyone that there are those within Unionism who have never fully accepted the shared society envisaged by the Good Friday Agreement and, indeed, now their opposition is intensified by the fact that they cannot stomach the sight of a Sinn Féin First Minister.
Another question: how big a section within the Unionist community do they represent? It’s hard to quantify.
But imagine the number of Protestant pro-Union people who have moved to the “middle ground” parties, plus those who have become so disillusioned that they are walking away from voting, and add in the Ulster Unionists who want to go back to Stormont, and the section within the DUP who accept the pragmatism of doing so.
By that calculation, the rump of people wanting the scorched earth policy of bringing the house crashing down are very much in a minority.
Furthermore, when you consider that Unionism doesn’t have an overall majority any more, then the section of the population as a whole which wants to hold back the tide is very much a minority.
Yet, the squeaky wheel gets the oil.
The tail is wagging the dog.
There has been a lot of speculation about what might happen if Stormont does fall.
A lot of it suggests that the “alternative arrangements” mentioned by NIO Minister, Lord Caine, would make a lot more input from Dublin inevitable, which is hardly ideal for the brand of Unionism which is leading the stampede towards tearing down devolution.
More so, I believe, is that even in the unlikely event of no Dublin role, the fact is that all decisions about what happens here would be taken by Westminster.
A government which is currently a mess incapable of sorting out their own problems, never mind ours.
I watched the Tory party conference this week.
What a bunch of entitled, unprincipled bunch of greedy chancers, shameless in their pursuit of power for power’s sake, and the benefit it can bring them.
Do we really think English Nationalists with a track record of betraying Unionism care about us?
The decision to scrap the Manchester section of the high-speed rail project shows they don’t care much for the north of England – never mind properly funding our society.
Yet those are the very people that Northern Ireland would be at the mercy of – that’s what is next if Stormont falls.
Let us not imagine, however, that everything will be hunky-dory if the DUP does decide to face down their right-wing critics within their own party, as well as from Unionism and Loyalism.
The question then will be: can our divided parties put their historic ideological differences aside for the sake of working properly together to improve the lives of everyone?
If we’re honest in looking at the past 25 years, the signs are not good in that respect.
There’s too much politicking on wider constitutional issues, instead of the practicalities of meeting people’s everyday needs.
As ever, parties take a short-term view to win elections, instead of considering what they then do with their mandate to make a better society.
I was involved in a discussion recently when people expressed their frustration at how little our politicians had achieved even when they were sitting in Stormont.
People felt that services and standards of life have fallen dramatically, both while MLAs were sitting, and during the numerous suspensions.
That’s a sad indictment of our politicians and the system itself.
This applies particularly to the West of the province, where we feel the power of decision-making is Belfast-centric.
Another question: Is it too strong a statement to say Northern Ireland is broken?
When we look at the disgraceful state of our public services and the way that impacts on people’s lives, it’s hard to argue anything else.
Can it be fixed? Clearly, it won’t be easy, but a first step would be a return to Stormont, and another major step would be taking brave decisions to work within the difficulties of an awkward Stormont system.
There are plenty of people of goodwill on all sides who realise that we cannot continue to sing the same old song; as Voltaire wrote: “Stupid is the man who always remains the same”.
Whatever your view on identity and constitutional issues, the immediate needs of our people must be addressed.
The future of our families is what the DUP is gambling with.
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