Gerard Howlin: Whoever wins Republic's election will have a weak base

It is also a bridging point between the remarkably stable politics of the 90 years between 1922 and 2011, the election after the economic crash.

The so-called two-and-a-half party system of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour that dominated, with only occasional influence from others, was decimated then.

What has emerged since but is unsustainable is a one-and-a-half party system, where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael govern together, instead of alternating between each other, and do so with whoever can make of the numbers to make a Dáil majority.

Historically bitter enemies, the so-called civil war parties of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been in coalition since 2020 and were in external alliance from 2016 when Fianna Fáil in opposition agreed to support Fine Gael in government with a confidence and supply arrangement.

The best expectation at the time of writing is that both, with others, will form the next government, probably after lengthy negotiations.

If they succeed, by 2030 they will have been in cahoots or in coalition for 14 years, and that fact alone creates an unprecedented reality.

It will create a crisis of opposition, in a democracy where only one political conglomerate can form a government, but the opposition is not an alternative government.

Something must give, and it will.

If the reshaping of politics already affected by nearly nine years of partnership between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is still in the future, this election has two characteristics.

The first is a government that is not enjoying a surge of popular support, and if re-elected, already looks tired.

The second is an opposition that, notwithstanding the tepid state of the government’s popularity, never looked like the alternative.

Sinn Féin is by far the largest part of the opposition, and Mary Lou McDonald the putative alternative Taoiseach.

But if in partial recovery in the closing stages of the campaign, her party has not regained either the ground lost since they were consistently scoring a third of votes in opinion polls two years ago.

They seemed set to build on their spectacular gains in the last general election in 2020 when they unexpectedly emerged as the largest party.

However, they were already waning a year ago, and the year since the riots in Dublin last November has been an annus horribilis.

Immigration generally – and specifically the reception of people seeking refugee status – fractured the Sinn Féin vote in Working Class communities.

The split in the undercarriage of its voter base was also a reaction against its cosying towards the economic centre.

Its attempt to turn Right while talking Left was laughably obvious. Their dismal showing in last June’s local and European elections was reflux against their establishment status.

But all that if very recent, is also now past and they are in a state of seemingly modest recovery.

Simon Harris, Taoiseach since April, is running on the slogan of New Energy. He is omnipresent on social media and careering breathlessly around the country.

But it is synthetic, and now seemingly faltering at the end. His party had their second worst result ever in 2020.

It’s instant reaction as the results came in was to go into opposition.

The lure of the warm broth of government lured it back, but after success in dealing with Brexit and Covid-19, Leo Varadkar failed to muster popular support and surprisingly retired.

Harris had no opposition in his own party for the office of Taoiseach – itself a warning sign, in any political party.

More than half his TDs are retiring; in a multi-seat constituency system where incumbency confers significant advantage this is a problem.

Two things matter for the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael combination. How close are they together to a majority of 87 seats, and where does each finish relative to each other?

The first dictates how many others are required to form a government. The degree of dispersal across the opposition determines how messy and in how many pieces that majority is found.

The latter determines in an arrangement to rotate the office of Taoiseach, and perhaps the major economic portfolios, who goes where and first.

The Tánaiste and former Taoiseach Micheál Martin has failed to reimagine his party Fianna Fáil as an engine of ideas.

What he has done with determination is use that diminished political machine as a vehicle for office.

He has avoided oblivion and played a poor hand of cards successfully to win big prizes.

If, however, mediocre, his final tally, pulls ahead of Fine Gael by even one seat – a very unlikely outcome until recently – he deserves a lifetime Lazarus award for political resurrection.

To emerge as Taoiseach in the next Dáil will be vindication of one of the most frequently written-off politicians in Irish politics.

This is a government cobbled together by two parties with the Green Party, after a disappointing result for the bigger two after the last election.

Right now it looks like it can survive unloved. For those looking for an alternative, Sinn Féin is back in focus.

The last hours of the campaign will matter hugely. A last debate on Tuesday night was a too rapid run-through too many issues that enabled serial evasion, because it was time to move on to the next topic.

There was no clear winner or loser. What is at stake in the last lap is a huge tranche of uncommitted votes that is possibly as high as 20 per cent.

What is at stake for voters is how even with an Exchequer brimming over with Corporation Tax, are recklessly extravagant promises afforded and how the country can reposition if an US–EU trade war imposes tariffs.

The glass is more than half-full, but external challenges loom.

What will really matter, however, is whether a now absent political capacity to make difficult choices is regained.

Gerard Howlin is a Dublin-based public affairs consultant, Irish Times columnist and former government advisor.